Photo : Anders Wiklund/TT/picture alliance
19 May 2022, Thursday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #205
War in Ukraine: Day 84
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 18 May, Ukraine’s interior ministry adviser, Anton Gerashchenko, alleged that direct talks with Russia were not possible because president Vladimir Putin was not ready for it. On the Telegram messaging app, he said: “The only chance (for peace) is the destruction of the Russian occupiers. As for when they will be ready to accept defeat, I think it’s a matter of months.” Russia, in turn, blamed Ukraine for not cooperating enough to be able to hold peace talks. The last time the two countries had directly communicated with each other was on 29 March.
On 18 May, Ukraine’s state-owned grid operator Ukrenergo said the suggestion by a Russian official that a Ukrainian nuclear power plant would supply electricity to Russia was completely ‘impossible.’ It released a statement which said that there are no connections between Ukraine’s grid and Russia’s power system, which makes any supply completely impossible.
The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
On 18 May, Russia’s foreign ministry said that they would expel 85 employees from the embassies of France, Spain, and Italy. This is in response to a similar move by France, Spain, and Italy, who collectively threw out 300 Russians since Moscow invaded Ukraine on 24 February. The foreign ministry also clarified that of the 85 diplomats, 24 were from Italy, 27 were from Spain, and 34 were from France.
Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson at the foreign ministry, said that 959 Ukrainian service personnel had surrendered at Mariupol. Of them, 50 were injured and are being treated for their injuries, while the rest have been sent to a prison colony in Olenivka, a town in the Russian-controlled area of the Donetsk region. The defence ministry also released a video of the wounded soldier in hospital beds receiving treatment. However, it could not be verified whether the captured people spoke under duress. However, most of the soldiers said that they were being fed well and taken care of.
Russia’s finance ministry released data that illuminated that 40 per cent of their defence spending was up in the first four months of this year. According to the reports, Russia has spent almost half of the RUB 3.5 trillion budgeted for defence in 2022. The ministry had initially anticipated a surplus of RUB 1.3 trillion, but given the cost of the war, it seems that they can expect a deficit of at least RUB 1.6 trillion. The government will not use the National Wealth Fund (NWF), an emergency fund, to cover the deficit.
On 17 May, Russia said they were now using a new generation of powerful lasers that can burn up drones. Putin has mentioned that one was called Perevest, which is named after a medieval Orthodox warrior monk Alexander Peresvet. Apart from that, nothing much is known about the capacity of these weapons. However, the deputy prime minister, Yury Borisov, said that Perevest was currently widely in use and could be used to blind satellites 1500 kilometers above the Earth.
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 18 May, the US senate foreign relations committee approved Bridget Brink as the ambassador to Ukraine. Joe Biden had nominated the veteran diplomat as the next ambassador, and the senate committee unanimously approved it. Brink, if confirmed, will be filling a crucial position that has been vacant for the last three years.
The US also reopened its embassy in Kyiv. The embassy had been closed since 14 February, ten days before Russia launched its full-scale offensive in Ukraine. However, the Charge d’Affaires Kristina Kvien returned to the country on 02 May, and since then, they have been preparing to open their offices. Spokesperson Daniel Langenkamp said that they would resume their operations but also mentioned that many diplomats will staff the office, and consular operations will not be resuming immediately.
On 18 May, Sweden and Finland formally applied to join the NATO alliance. While they have been historically neutral countries, their decision to join NATO was sparked by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. This step has gained widespread appreciation from most member countries; Turkey remains opposed to it. Ankara also objected to an expedited accession process that generally takes only a few weeks.
The Global Fallouts
International implications of the Ukraine war
On 18 May, the UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said that they were trying to restore the corridors to export grains as the threat to the global food crisis was rising. In a UN meeting hosted by US secretary of state Antony Blinken, Guterres requested Russia to enable safer corridors for the grains to be exported and the worldwide acceptance of Russian food and fertilisers. Otherwise, he said: “It threatens to tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity, followed by malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a crisis that could last for years.”
The World Bank said that they would offer USD 30 billion to help the impending food security crisis, exacerbated by Russia’s blockades of Ukraine’s ports. The total will include USD 12 billion in new projects and USD 18 billion in projects based on food and nutrition that already exist.
India, the world’s biggest buyer of Russian arms, is reportedly looking to diversify their supplies. They are also contemplating on making military equipment locally. Air Marshal Vibhas Pande said that given the turmoil in the geopolitical situation, they are looking for some stability. The only option in that regard is to be self-reliant and self-sustained.
References
“Russia and Ukraine blame each other after peace talks stall,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
“Ukraine dismisses talk of nuclear plant supplying electricity to Russia,” 18 May 2022
“Russia expels 85 diplomats from France, Spain and Italy,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
“With troops in Ukraine, Russia's defence spending leaps 40%,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Pjotr Sauer, “Russia says 900 Ukrainian troops sent to prison colony from Mariupol” The Guardian, 18 May 2022
“Russia posts video of Azovstal fighters in hospital after surrender,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Guy Faulconbridge, “Russia uses new laser weapons in Ukraine, Zelenskiy mocks 'wonder weapon',” Reuters, 18 May 2022
“U.S. Senate committee backs Biden nominee to be Ukraine ambassador,” Reuters, 19 May 2022
“U.S. reopens Kyiv embassy after three-month closure,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
Robin Emmott and Nevzat Devranoglu, “Finland, Sweden apply to join NATO amid Turkish objections,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
“U.N. chief in talks on restoring Ukraine grain exports amid global food crisis,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
David Lawder, “World Bank to offer $30 bln as Ukraine war threatens food security,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
“India, world's biggest buyer of Russian arms, looks to diversify suppliers,” Reuters, 18 May 2022
“War in Ukraine: Latest Updates,” BBC Live, 18 May 2022
IN BRIEF
By Emmanuel Royan and Sai Pranav
SWEDEN
Sweden's youth show reluctance on Stockholm to join NATO
On 18 May, prime minister Magdalena Andersson's decision to join NATO marked the end of Sweden's 200-year military neutrality policy. While most Swedes favour their country joining NATO amid the war in Ukraine, many young people are more reluctant about Sweden joining NATO. Some youngsters marched on the streets of Stockholm, condemning the loss of military neutrality as a step that would result in greater global warfare. According to a security policy analyst at Sweden's defence research agency Alina Engström, the benefits of quitting the military non-alignment status include the possibility of Sweden being more involved in NATO's defence planning and receiving security assurances. The disadvantages of participation would make Sweden more adaptable in adjusting its security policy. In contrast, it would have to lose some flexibility in its foreign and security policy. (Priyanka Shankar, “Why some young Swedes remain uneasy about joining NATO,” Deutsche Welle, 18 May 2022)
REGIONAL
Western Europe sees confirmed cases of monkeypox
On 18 May, five confirmed monkeypox cases among young men were reported by health officials in Portugal. Originating from Africa in the 1970s, this is the first time the disease has spread to Europe. The disease was confirmed to not be a sexually transmitted virus but instead spreads through intimate physical contact and affects only younger men. Monkeypox is a milder version of chickenpox with one per cent fatality and shows similar symptoms. There were 15 cases reported in Portugal, seven in the UK, 23 in Spain, and one in the state of Massachusetts in the US. All the individuals infected were young men. (“Monkeypox: Portugal reports cases as outbreak spreads,” Deutsche Welle, 18 May 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Report by climate scientists states the drawbacks of drilling and mining new sites
On 18 May, a new study by climate scientists showed that the extraction of oil, natural gas, and coal in new drilling and mining sites could cause an increase in global temperature by more than 1.5 degrees Celcius. The authors stated that drilling and mining new sites were not the answer to the Russia-Ukraine war. The findings also suggested that countries reject licenses to new drilling and mining sites. According to the study, all countries should turn toward renewable energy sources and move away from oil and gas. It also said that there has already been an excessive amount of extraction of oil and gas till now from the earth's surface. The calls were aligned with the objectives of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow. (Tim Gallagher, “Mining and drilling outside Russia is ‘not a viable response’ to Ukraine war, climate scientists say,” Euronews, 18 May 2022)
Conservative parties of Hungary and the US attempt to strengthen ties
On 18 May, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán will be the keynote speaker at a special session of America's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Hungary. The conference is held in an effort to strengthen ties between the radical right on both sides of the Atlantic under the banner of the "great replacement" ideology. Orbán made explicit mention of the ideology in a speech on 16 May, claiming that there is a liberal conspiracy to dilute the white populations of the United States and European countries through immigration. This comes as the murderer who opened fire at a store in a predominantly black neighborhood of Buffalo invoked the creed, which is becoming increasingly popular among US Republicans. (Flora Garamvolgyi and Julian Borger, “Orbán and US right to bond at Cpac in Hungary over ‘great replacement’ ideology,” The Guardian, 18 May 2022)
India’s anti-terror agency suspects US made bomb was used against pilgrims in Kashmir
On 18 May, India’s anti-terror body national investigation agency said it suspected the use of a Sticky Bomb in the attack on the bus carrying Hindu pilgrims on 13 May. The use of sticky bombs by Kashmiri militants is a relatively recent phenomenon. In February 2021, during searches in Kashmir in February 2021, Indian security officers seized numerous similar devices. Militants often used these devices against NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. The Indian military discovered US-made M4 carbine rifles from multiple foreign militants dead in different sections of Kashmir after NATO soldiers withdrew from Afghanistan. (Samaan Lateef, “How NATO weapons from Afghanistan are impacting Kashmir's militancy,” Deutsche Welle, 18 May 2022)